Quantum Optimisation for Transport Vulnerability Identification

Abstract

Transport network vulnerability analysis plays a crucial role in safeguarding urban resilience. Traditional vulnerability identification approaches have provided valuable insights, yet they face two major limitations. First, the number of disruption scenarios increases combinatorially with the number of disrupted links considered simultaneously, making classical approaches computationally prohibitive. Second, most studies approximate the impacts of multiple simultaneous link failures through linear aggregation, which fails to capture the nonlinear interaction effects observed in real networks. To address these gaps, we reformulate the bi-level Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Programming (MINLP) model into a quantum-compatible Quadratic Unconstrained Binary Optimisation (QUBO) structure, enabling parallel exploration of complex disruption scenarios while incorporating nonlinear interaction effects. We develop a hybrid optimisation framework that integrates the quantum optimisation algorithm with the Frank-Wolfe method to validate the model's effectiveness on the small-scale network. Then, we further verify the framework through the D-Wave hardware across benchmark networks of different scales, including Sioux Falls, Anaheim, Chicago Sketch, and Berlin Full, to examine scalability and feasibility. The results show that this framework achieves strong solvability and stability. In particular, optimisation for large and larger networks is completed within minutes (Approximately 2.8 minutes for the 914-link, 9.8 minutes for the 2950-link, and 31.2 minutes for the 6018-link on D-Wave), demonstrating a computational efficiency improvement by one to two orders of magnitude compared with classical metaheuristic algorithms. These findings highlight the feasibility and potential of applying quantum computing to network vulnerability identification and open a new avenue for resilience-oriented planning.